渔业管理策略评价及应用研究进展Review on Management Strategy Evaluation and its Application in Fishery
何珊,陈新军
摘要(Abstract):
管理策略评价(MSE)是近年来国际上渔业资源评估与管理学科发展的新趋势。MSE是通过对管理目标渔业系统的模拟,来测试和评价不同的渔业管理策略达到预期管理目标一种方法。MSE一般包含操作模型、采样模型、资源评估模型和执行模型,其中操作模型是核心。在操作模型中,通过模拟测试的方法来评估不同管理策略达到预期管理目标的程度,并充分考虑到渔业管理中的不确定性,因此渔业管理策略评价能够获得在渔业资源变动和不确定性影响下仍有较好表现的管理措施。管理策略评价一般与生物参考点、捕捞控制规则、管理规定和绩效评估有关。此外,随时间的变化的补充量、自然死亡系数和生长率,以及渔具和作业方式的选择性等,都会对MSE产生影响。由于可提高渔业管理的成功率,MSE已在渔业资源评估与管理中越来越广泛应用。通过对MSE的理论、方法和存在的问题进行总结与分析,并以实例阐述其在金枪鱼渔业管理中的发展和应用,为该领域的进一步研究提供参考和依据。
关键词(KeyWords): 管理策略评价;传统方法;资源评估;金枪鱼渔业;管理目标
基金项目(Foundation): 海洋局公益性行业专项(20155014);; 上海市科技创新行动计划(5DZ1202200);; 海洋二号卫星地面应用系统项目(HY2A-HT-YWY-006)
作者(Author): 何珊,陈新军
参考文献(References):
- [1]BUTTERWORTH D S.Why a management procedure approach?Some positives and negatives[J].ICES Journal of Marine Science,2007,64(4):613-617.
- [2]GEROMONT H F,OLIVEIRA J A A D,JOHNSTON S J,et al.Development and application of management procedures for fisheries in southern Africa[J].ICES Journal of Marine Science,1999,56(6):952-966.
- [3]AMAR Z T,PUNT A,DORN M.The management strategy evaluation approach and the fishery for walleye pollock in the Gulf of Alaska[C]//Resiliency of Gadid Stocks to Fishing and Climate Change.2008:317-346.
- [4]PUNT A E,DONOVAN G P.Developing management procedures that are Robust to uncertainty:lessons from the international whaling commission[J].ICES Journal of Marine Science,2007,64(4):603-612.
- [5]FROMENTIN J M,KELL L T.Consequences of variations in carrying capacity or migration for the perception of Atlantic bluefin tuna(Thunnus thynnus)population dynamics[J].Canadian Journal of Fisheries and Aquatic Sciences,2007,64(5):827-836.
- [6]KELL L T,MOSQUEIRA I,GROSJEAN P,et al.FLR:an open-source framework for the evaluation and development of management strategies[J].ICES Journal of Marine Science,1974,29(4):1141-1145.
- [7]BUTTERWORTH D S,COCHRANE K L,DE O J A A.Management Procedures:a better way to manage fisheries?The South African experience,1997:83-90.
- [8]DICHMONT C M,DENG A,PUNT A E,et al.Management strategies for short-lived species:The case of Australia's Northern Prawn Fishery:1.Accounting for multiple species,spatial structure and implementation uncertainty when evaluating risk[J].Fisheries Research,2006,82(s 1–3):235-245.
- [9]DICHMONT C M,DENG A,PUNT A E,et al.Beyond biological performance measures in management strategy evaluation:Bringing in economics and the effects of trawling on the benthos[J].Fisheries Research,2008,94(3):238-250.
- [10]KELL L T,PILLING G M,KIRKWOOD G P,et al.An evaluation of the implicit management procedure used for some ICES roundfish stocks[J].ICES Journal of Marine Science,2005,62(4):750-759.
- [11]KELL L T,SCOTT R,HUNTER E.Implications for current management advice for North Sea plaice:Part I.Migration between the North Sea and English Channel[J].Journal of Sea Research,2004,51(3):287-299.
- [12]PUNT A E,SMITH A D M.Harvest strategy evaluation for the eastern stock of gemfish(Rexea solandri)[J].ICES Journal of Marine Science,1999,56(6):860-875.
- [13]CHEN Y.A preliminary list of MSE compents and their functionalities for CA spiny lobster fishery.[EB/OL][26July2016].http://www.fgc.ca.gov/meetings/2015/Apr/04080915 docs.aspx.
- [14]PUNT A E,BUTTERWORTH D S,MOOR C L,et al.Management strategy evaluation:best practices[J].Fish and Fisheries,2014.
- [15]HOLLAND D S.Management strategy evaluation and management procedures:tools for rebuilding and sustaining fisheries[R].Oecd Food Agriculture and Fisheries Papers,2010.
- [16]STARR P J,BREEN P A,HILBORN R H,et al.Evaluation of a management decision rule for a New Zealand rock lobster substock[J].Marine and Freshwater Research,1997,48(8):1093-1101.
- [17]A'MAR Z T,PUNT A E,DORN M W.The evaluation of two management strategies for the Gulf of Alaska walleye pollock fishery under climate change.[J].Ices Journal of Marine Science,2009,80(7):109-116.
- [18]ANONYMOUS.Report of the 16th meeting of the Extended Scientific Committee for the Commissionfor the Conservation of Southern Bluefin Tuna[EB/OL].[2016-07-26].http://www.nmfs.noaa.gov/ia/agreements/LMR%20report/commission for the conservation of southern bluefin tuna.pdf.
- [19]FAY G,PUNT A E,SMITH A D M.Impacts of spatial uncertainty on performance of age structure-based harvest strategies for blue eye trevalla(Hyperoglyphe antarctica)[J].Fisheries Research,2011,110(3):391-407.
- [20]PUNT A E,TRINNIE F,WALKER T I,et al.The performance of a management procedure for rock lobsters,Jasus edwardsii,off western Victoria,Australia in the face of non-stationary dynamics[J].Fisheries Research,2013,137(1):116–128.
- [21]RADEMEYER R A,éVA E.PLAGANYI,BUTTERWORTH D S.Tips and tricks in designing management procedures[J].ICES Journal of Marine Science,2007,64(4):618-625.
- [22]LITTLE L R,WAYTE S E,TUCK G N,et al.Development and evaluation of a cpue-based harvest control rule for the southern and eastern scalefish and shark fishery of Australia[J].ICES Journal of Marine Science,2013,68(8):1699-1705.
- [23]GRAFTON R Q,ARNASON R,BJORNDAL T,et al.Incentive-based approaches to sustainable fisheries[J].Canadian Journal of Fisheries and Aquatic Sciences,2005,63(3):699-710(12).
- [24]LEE H H,MAUNDER M N,PINER K R,et al.Can steepness of the stock–recruitment relationship be estimated in fishery stock assessment models?[J].Fisheries Research,2012,s 125–126(6):254-261.
- [25]ULRICH C,BO S A,SPARRE P J,et al.TEMAS:Fleet-based bio-economic simulation software to evaluate management strategies accounting for fleet behaviour[J].ICES Journal of Marine Science,2007,64(4):647-651.
- [26]SAMPSON D B,YIN Y.A Monte Carlo evaluation of the stock synthesis assessment program[J].Funk,1998.
- [27]KELL L T,PUNT A E,ROEL B A,et al.Advances in fisheries science 50 years on from Beverton and Holt[M].2008:104-134.
- [28]KUROTA H,HIRAMATSU K,TAKAHASHI N,et al.Developing a management procedure robust to uncertainty for southern bluefin tuna:a somewhat frustrating struggle to bridge the gap between ideals and reality[J].Population Ecology,2010,52(3):359-372.
- [29]FRANCIS R,SHOTTON R.“Risk”in fisheries management:a review[J].Canadian Journal of Fisheries and Aquatic Sciences,2011,54(8):1699-1715.
- [30]O’Brien C M.Modelling and Quantitative Methods in Fisheries,Second Edition by Malcolm Haddon[J].International Statistical Review,2012(1):201-202.
- [31]HODGSON S,QUINN T P,HILBORN R,et al.Marine and freshwater climatic factors affecting interannual variation in the timing of return migration to fresh water of sockeye salmon(Oncorhynchus nerka)[J].Fisheries Oceanography,2005,15(1):1-24.
- [32]BUTTERWORTH D S,PUNT A E,SINCLAIR M,et al.The role of harvest control laws,risk and uncertainity and the precautionary approach in ecosystem--based management[J].Responsible Fisheries in the Marine Ecosystem,2003.
- [33]SARAH B M K,CIARAN J K,EDWARD A C,et al.On scientists’discomfort in fisheries advisory science:the example of simulation-based fisheries management-strategy evaluations[J].Fish and Fisheries,2010,11(2):119-132.
- [34]FULTON E A,SMITH A D,SMITH D C,et al.An integrated approach is needed for ecosystem based fisheries management:insights from ecosystem-level management strategy evaluation.[J].Plos One,2014,9(1):84242-84242.
- [35]GAICHAS S,GAMBLE R,FOGARTY M J,et al.Assembly rules for aggregate-Species production models:simulations in support of management strategy evaluation[J].Marine Ecology Progress,2012,459(1):275-292.
- [36]FOURNIER D A,HAMPTON J,SIBERT J R.MULTIFAN-CL:A length-based,age-structured model for fisheries stock assessment,with application to South Pacific albacore,Thunnus alalunga[J].Canadian Journal of Fisheries and Aquatic Sciences,1998,55(9):2105-2116.
- [37]METHOT R D.User manual for stock synthesis[J].Model Version,2009.
- [38]MICHIELSENS C G J,MCALLISTER M K,KUIKKA S,et al.A Bayesian state space mark recapture model to estimate exploitation rates in mixed-stock fisheries[J].Canadian Journal of Fisheries and Aquatic Sciences,2006,63(2):321-334.
- [39]PORCH C E,EKLUND A M,SCOTT G P.A catch-free stock assessment model with application to goliath grouper(Epinephelus itajara)off southern Florida.Fish Bull[J].Fishery Bulletin-National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration,2006,104(1):89-101.
- [40]COOKE J G.Improvement of fishery-management advice through simulation testing of harvest algorithms[J].Ices Journal of Marine Science,1999,volume 56(6):797-810(14).
- [41]MAUNDER M N,WONG R A.Approaches for estimating natural mortality:Application to summer flounder(Paralichthys dentatus)in the U.S.mid-Atlantic[J].Fisheries Research,2011,111(1):92-99.
- [42]BUTTERWORTH D S,PUNT A E.Experiences in the evaluation and implementation of management procedures[J].ICES Journal of Marine Science,1999,56(6):985-998.
- [43]COCHRANE K L,BUTTERWORTH D S,OLIVEIRA J A A D,et al.Management procedures in a fishery based on highly variable stocks and with conflicting objectives:experiences in the South African pelagic fishery[J].Reviews in Fish Biology and Fisheries,1998,8(2):177-214.
- [44]SAINSBURY K J,CAMPBELL R A,LINDHOLM R,et al.Experimental management of an Australian multispecies fishery:Examining the possibility of trawl-induced habitat modification[J].Global Trends Fisheries Management,1997.
- [45]HILBORN R.The state of the art in stock assessment:where we are and where we are going[J].General Information,2002,102(4):1374-1379.
- [46]OLIVEIRA J.The development and implementation of a joint management procedure for the South African pilchard and anchovy resources[EB/OL][2016-07-26]https://www.researchgate.net/publication/34509274 The development and implementation of a joint management procedure for the South African pilchard and anchovy resources.
- [47]BUTTERWORTH D S,DE OLIVEIRA J J A,MOOR C L D.Are South African administrative law procedures adequate for the evaluation of issues resting on scientific analyses[J].South African Law Journal,2012,129(3):203-209.
- [48]COX S P,KRONLUND A R.Practical stakeholder-driven harvest policies for groundfish fisheries in British Columbia,Canada[J].Fisheries Research,2008,94(3):224-237.
- [49]MAPSTONE B D,LITTLE L R,PUNT A E,et al.Management strategy evaluation for line fishing in the Great Barrier Reef:Balancing conservation and multi-sector fishery objectives[J].Fisheries Research,2008,94(3):315-329.
- [50]NORTON J G,HERRICK S F,MASON J E.Fisheries abundance cycles in ecosystem and economic management of California fish and invertebrate resources[M]//The Future of Fisheries Science in North America.Springer Netherlands,2009:227-244.
- [51]éVA E.PLAGANYIi,RADEMEYER R A,BUTTERWORTH D S,et al.Making management procedures operational innovations implemented in South Africa[J].ICES Journal of Marine Science,2007,64(4):626-632.
- [52]BRANDON J,COOKE J,KITAKADO T,et al.Report of the Sub-Committee on the Revised Management Procedure(RMP)[J].Journal of Cetacean Research and Management,2011,24(2):112-126.
- [53]DAYAL V,PINIOUKALLI M.Report of the scientific committee.[J].Journal of the Indian Medical Association,2000,98(6):284-6.
- [54]MARIEJOELLE R,JAKE C R.Simulation-based management strategy evaluation:Ignorance disguised as mathematics?[J].ICES Journal of Marine Science,2009,66(4):754-762.
- [55]CURTOTTI R,CHE N,KOMPAS T,et al.Harvest strategy policy and stock rebuilding for commonwealth fisheries in Australia[M]//The Economics of Rebuilding Fisheries.2010:97-123(27).
- [56]MYERS R A,ROSENBERG A A,MACE P M,et al.In search of thresholds for recruitment overfishing[J].Ices Journal of Marine Science,1994,51(2):191-205.
- [57]CHRISTENSEN S.Evaluation of management strategies-a bioeconomic approach applied to the Greenland Shrimp Fishery[J].ICES Journal of Marine Science,1997,54(3):412-426.
- [58]HOLLAND D S,HERRERA G E.uncertainty in the management of fisheries:contradictory implications and a new approach[j].marine resource economics,2009,24(3):289-299.
- [59]DUNSTAN P K,BAX N J.Management of an invasive marine species:defining and testing the effectiveness of ballast-water management options using management strategy evaluation.[J].ICES Journal of Marine Science,2008,65(6):841-850.
- [60]MILNERGULLAND E J,ARROYO B,BELLARD C,et al.New directions in management strategy evaluation through cross-fertilization between fisheries science and terrestrial conservation.[J].Biology Letters,2010,6(6):719-22.
- [61]BUNNEFELD N,HOSHINO E,MILNERGULLAND E J.Management strategy evaluation:a powerful tool for conservation?[J].Trends in Ecology and Evolution,2011,26(9):441-7.
- [62]MOORE J E,CURTIS K A,LEWISON R L,et al.Evaluating sustainability of fisheries bycatch mortality for marine megafauna:a review of conservation reference points for data-limited populations[J].Environmental Conservation,2013,40(4):329-344.
- [63]FIELD J C,PUNT A E,METHOT R D,et al.Does MPA mean major problem for assessments'?Considering the consequences of place-based management systems[J].Fish and Fisheries,2006,7(4):284-302.
- [64]冯波,陈新军,许柳雄.印度洋黄鳍金枪鱼渔业资源开发策略评价[J].农业系统科学与综合研究,2009,25(4):506-510.
- [65]陈新军,曹杰,刘必林,等.基于贝叶斯Schaefer模型的西北太平洋柔鱼资源评估与管理[J].水产学报,2011,35(10):1572-1581.
- [66]BERGH M O,BUTTERWORTH D S.Towards rational harvesting of the South African anchovy considering survey imprecision and recruitment variability[J].South African Journal of Marine Science,1987,5(1):937-951.
- [67]FURMAN L B,BUTTERWORTH D S.Proposed Catch Control Rules for Horse Mackerel Bycatch in the Small Pelagics fishery and Directed Catch in the Midwater Trawl Fishery management of Agriculture[R].Cape Town:Marine Resource Assessment and Management Group(MARAM)Department of Mathematics and Applied Mathematics University of Cape Town,2012.
- [68]KUROTA H,HIRAMATSU K,TAKAHASHI N,et al.Developing a management procedure robust to uncertainty for southern bluefin tuna:a somewhat frustrating struggle to bridge the gap between ideals and reality[J].Population Ecology,2010,52(52):359-372.
- [69]HADDON M,HELIDONIOTIS F.Legal minimum lengths and the management of abalone fisheries[J].Journal of Shellfish Research,2014,32(32):197-208.
- [70]TUCK G N.Are bycatch rates sufficient as the principal fishery performance measure and method of assessment for seabirds?[J].Aquatic Conservation Marine and Freshwater Ecosystems,2011,21(5):412–422.
- [71]KELL L T,PASTOORS M A,SCOTT R D,et al.Evaluation of multiple management objectives for Northeast Atlantic flatfish stocks:sustainability vs.stability of yield[J].ICES Journal of Marine Science,2005,62(6):1104-1117.
- [72]HURADOFERRO F,PUNT A E,HILL K T.Use of multiple selectivity patterns as a proxy for spatial structure[J].Fisheries Research,2014,158(5):102-115.
- [73]FS/EPDF.Technical details underlying the management strategy evaluation process leading to selection of a Management Procedure for Western Component(4Xopqrs5)Pollock/[J].2011.
- [74]BUTTERWORTH D S,RADEMEYERr R A.Greenland halibut MSE results for updated SCAA reference case and robustness test operating models[R].Montreal:NAFO Document,2010.
- [75]NAFO.Report of the FC Working Group on Greenland Halibut Management Strategy Evaluation(WGMSE)[C].Halifax,NAFO,2011.
- [76]SAINSBURY K J,PUNT A E,SMITH A D M.Design of operational management strategies for achieving fishery ecosystem objectives[J].ICES Journal of Marine Science,2000,57(3):731-741.
- [77]TUCK G N,KLAER N,PUNT A E,et al.Experience in implementing harvest strategies in australia's south-eastern fisheries[J].Fisheries Research,2008,94(3):373-379.
- [78]MAUNDER M N.Evaluating the stock–recruitment relationship and management reference points:Application to summer flounder(Paralichthys dentatus)in the U.S.mid-Atlantic[J].Fisheries Research,2012,126(4):20-26.
- [79]MAUNDER M N,PUNT A E.A review of integrated analysis in fisheries stock assessment[J].Fisheries Research,2013,142(6):61-74.
- [80]KEL L T,MOSQUEIRA I,GROSJEAN P,et al.FLR:an open-source framework for the evaluation and development of management strategies[J].Ices Journal of Marine Science,1974,29(4):1141-1145.