王忠秋,汪金涛,陈新军

• 1:上海海洋大学海洋科学学院
• 2:上海海洋大学远洋渔业协同创新中心
• 3:上海海洋大学国家远洋渔业工程技术研究中心
• 4:上海海洋大学大洋渔业资源可持续开发省部共建教育部重点实验室

摘要(Abstract)：

根据1970—2012年智利捕捞南美沙丁鱼的年产量数据,以及厄尔尼诺指数、海平面气压、南方涛动指数等海洋环境和气候因子共9个数据,采用相关性分析确定影响南美沙丁鱼资源量的主要海洋环境和气候因子;利用多种神经网络模型对南美沙丁鱼资源量与相关性分析选取的主要海洋环境和气候因子进行建模拟合,预测南美沙丁鱼资源量。通过对17种不同神经网络模型的研究,以拟合残差、偏差解释率、预报标准差3个因素综合分析,确定南美沙丁鱼资源量的最优预报模型。研究表明,结构为10-8-1的神经网络模型拟合残差仅为0.003 8,偏差解释率高达98%,预报标准差为21%,可作为南美沙丁鱼资源量的预报模型,该研究结果可为预测南美沙丁鱼资源动向提供依据。

关键词(KeyWords)： 南美沙丁鱼;影响因子;资源量预测;神经网络

Abstract:

Keywords:

基金项目(Foundation): 海洋局公益性行业专项(201505014);; 国家863计划(2012AA092303);; 国家科技支撑计划(2013BAD13B01)

作者(Author): 王忠秋,汪金涛,陈新军

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