林泓羽,汪金涛,陈新军,雷林,邓荣成,隋恒寿,李彬

• 1:上海海洋大学海洋科学学院
• 2:农业部大洋渔业开发重点实验室
• 3:国家远洋渔业工程技术研究中心
• 4:大洋渔业资源可持续开发教育部重点实验室

摘要(Abstract)：

【目的】探究垂直温度梯度对大眼金枪鱼时空分布的影响，为大西洋中部大眼金枪鱼的渔场预报提供科学的参考依据。【方法】根据2016-2019年中国水产集团远洋延绳钓船队在大西洋的大眼金枪鱼生产数据，结合垂直水温及其相邻垂直梯度水温差值，深度范围为0～300 m，采用广义加性模型(GAM)对单位捕捞努力量渔获量(CPUE)进行预测，由累计解释偏差(Accumulation of deviance explained)以及赤池信息准则(Akaike Information Criterion,AIC)选取最优GAM模型。【结果】模型结果表明，累计解释率达到52.9%，各个模型因子效应对CPUE的贡献率产生主要影响依次为经纬度交互效应、月份、深度150 m的水温t_(150)、深度100 m的水温t_(100)和深度300 m的水温t_(300)等。预测CPUE与名义CPUE的时空分布叠加结果表明，整体分布规律基本一致，0°-20°N、30°W-50°W的大西洋中部的西北区域海域为预测的高值区，是适宜大眼金枪鱼捕捞作业的海域。【结论】建立最优GAM模型能够较准确预测大西洋中部大眼金枪鱼的渔场分布，垂直水温结构对其渔场时空分布具有影响。

关键词(KeyWords)： 大眼金枪鱼;时空分布;大西洋;GAM模型

Abstract:

Keywords:

基金项目(Foundation): 国家自然科学基金(NSFC41876141)

作者(Author): 林泓羽,汪金涛,陈新军,雷林,邓荣成,隋恒寿,李彬

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