蒙泽,李保生

• 1:中国气象局上海台风研究所
• 2:中山大学海洋科学学院/南方海洋科学与工程广东省实验室(珠海)

摘要(Abstract)：

【目的】改进季节内尺度可预报信号的模拟空间，明确夏季风降水在季节内尺度的可预报上限。【方法】基于卫星降水数据、CMIP6海气耦合模式和大气环流模式的模式产品，采用非线性局部Lyapunov指数方法，系统分析南亚夏季风、南海夏季风和西北太平洋夏季风季节内降水的可预报期限。【结果与结论】3个夏季风季节内降水的实际可预报期限约为31～32 d，其中西北太平洋夏季风因显著的海气耦合作用而非线性误差演化更长；CMIP6模式模拟的可预报期限普遍低于实际可预报期限，海气耦合模式在南亚、南海和西北太平洋区域可预报期限分别为16.0、17.7和19.7 d，而大气环流模式则更低，可预报期限分别为14.0、15.4和17.0 d，表明当前模式的可预报期限存在显著提升空间；进一步的信噪比分析表明，CMIP6的气候模式对季节内降水强度的模拟能力与其可预报性呈正相关。海气耦合过程通过增强降水变率强度，显著提高模式在季节内尺度的可预报性。本研究为理解亚洲季风季节内可预报性提供了新视角，指出深化海气耦合机制研究是改进模式预报技巧的重要方向。

关键词(KeyWords)： 亚洲夏季风;季节内降水;可预报期限;海气耦合;非线性局部Lyapunov指数

Abstract:

Keywords:

基金项目(Foundation): 广东省基础与应用基础研究基金（2025A1515011394）

作者(Author): 蒙泽,李保生

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